Claims & outcomes
What companies said would happen, held against what happened. Every entry is a verbatim quote with its source and date; the status is where reality stands, tied to launches, filings and records this site holds. The list is curated and short so far, and a company's absence means we have not recorded a claim, never that none exists.
The evidence, claim by claim
LeoLabs Achieved
Additionally, LeoLabs secured a second AFWERX SBIR award in 2024 to develop a next-generation S-Band radar system that is set to debut in early 2025.
LeoLabs press release (PR Newswire) · Jan 16, 2025 · due Early 2025
Said to LeoLabs press release (PR Newswire) · Jan 16, 2025
- Predicts
- A next-generation S-band radar system debuts in early 2025
- Due
- Early 2025
- Where it stands
- The Scout radar class was unveiled on April 7, 2025, at the edge of the stated window. (assessed Jul 27, 2026)
Lockheed Martin Space Achieved
Lockheed Martin said Sept. 22 that it will complete delivery this month of the 21 spacecraft for this mission.
SpaceNews · Sep 22, 2025 · due October 2025
Said to SpaceNews · Sep 22, 2025
- Predicts
- All 21 Tranche 1 Transport Layer satellites delivered by end of September 2025 and launched in October 2025
- Due
- October 2025
- Where it stands
- The 21 satellites launched from Vandenberg on October 15, 2025. (assessed Jul 27, 2026)
Blue Origin Missed
in the next couple of weeks
Jacqueline Cortese, Senior Director of Civil Space · Spaceflight Now, from the von Braun Symposium · Oct 28, 2025 · due November 2025
Said to Spaceflight Now, from the von Braun Symposium · Oct 28, 2025
- Predicts
- The first Blue Moon Mk1 cargo lander, carrying NASA instruments, launches on New Glenn around November 2025
- Due
- November 2025
- Where it stands
- The lander has still not launched. It is in environmental testing with a launch listed as no earlier than the first quarter of 2027, more than a year past the stated timeframe. (assessed Jul 27, 2026)
Moog Space and Defense Unverified
on track to manufacture EMA flight hardware this fall
Moog press release · Jun 30, 2025 · due Fall 2025
Said to Moog press release · Jun 30, 2025
- Predicts
- The expanded East Aurora facility manufactures electromechanical actuation flight hardware by fall 2025
- Due
- Fall 2025
- Where it stands
- The stated season has passed and no public record confirms or refutes first flight-hardware production. (assessed Jul 27, 2026)
Rocket Lab Missed
All in all, we continue to push extremely hard for end-of-year launch.
Peter Beck, Founder and CEO · Q2 2025 earnings call (Motley Fool transcript) · Aug 7, 2025 · due End of 2025
Said to Q2 2025 earnings call (Motley Fool transcript) · Aug 7, 2025
- Predicts
- Neutron's first launch before the end of 2025
- Due
- End of 2025
- Where it stands
- On November 10, 2025 the company moved the debut to 2026, saying Neutron would fly when it was confident the rocket was ready. (assessed Jul 27, 2026)
United Launch Alliance Missed
We expect to hit our twice-a-month tempo before the end of the year, so that as we roll into 2026 that forecast is somewhere between 20 and 25 launches.
Tory Bruno, President and CEO · Aerospace America · Aug 7, 2025 · due End of 2025
Said to Aerospace America · Aug 7, 2025
- Predicts
- A two-launches-per-month Vulcan tempo before the end of 2025
- Due
- End of 2025
- Where it stands
- Vulcan flew once in 2025 and did not fly again until February 2026. (assessed Jul 27, 2026)
Amazon Leo (Project Kuiper) Missed
Project Kuiper will deliver high-speed, low-latency internet to virtually any location on the planet, and we expect to begin delivering service to customers later this year.
About Amazon · Apr 28, 2025 · due Late 2025
Said to About Amazon · Apr 28, 2025
- Predicts
- Customer satellite internet service begins before the end of 2025
- Due
- Late 2025
- Where it stands
- No customer service began in 2025. An enterprise beta opened in April 2026 under the Amazon Leo name, with commercial launch guided to mid-2026. (assessed Jul 27, 2026)
Arianespace Missed
We have a very steep ramp-up plan. This year we target to achieve five flights of Ariane 6, the first one being in February, and then we want to reach our target cadence as soon as possible. By target cadence, I mean between 9 and 10 launches per year.
David Cavaillolès, CEO · SpaceNews · Feb 11, 2025 · due End of 2025
Said to SpaceNews · Feb 11, 2025
- Predicts
- Five Ariane 6 launches completed during calendar 2025, starting with a February flight
- Due
- End of 2025
- Where it stands
- Ariane 6 flew four times in 2025, one short, and the first flight slipped from February to March. (assessed Jul 27, 2026)
Avio Missed
The company is planning four launches of the Vega C in 2025 using current infrastructure, but he said the new integration building will support an increase to six launches annually in the future.
Giulio Ranzo, CEO · SpaceNews · Dec 19, 2024 · due End of 2025
Said to SpaceNews · Dec 19, 2024
- Predicts
- Four Vega C launches completed during calendar 2025
- Due
- End of 2025
- Where it stands
- Vega C flew three times in 2025, one short of the four planned. (assessed Jul 27, 2026)
Ursa Major Unverified
Work on the site is already underway, and we will begin testing at the site in Q4 2025.
Ursa Major press release (PR Newswire) · Sep 10, 2025 · due Q4 2025
Said to Ursa Major press release (PR Newswire) · Sep 10, 2025
- Predicts
- Solid rocket motor testing begins at the new test and qualification site in Q4 2025
- Due
- Q4 2025
- Where it stands
- The stated quarter has passed; the public record does not confirm or refute first testing. (assessed Jul 27, 2026)
Lockheed Martin Space Missed
This means the new satellite and its mission payload has the green light for further system level testing, which includes a focus on environmental testing, as it moves toward a 2025 launch.
Lockheed Martin press release · Dec 10, 2024 · due During 2025
Said to Lockheed Martin press release · Dec 10, 2024
- Predicts
- First Next-Gen OPIR GEO satellite launches in 2025
- Due
- During 2025
- Where it stands
- The satellite was delivered in September 2025 but stayed tied to the grounded Vulcan; launch moved into 2026. (assessed Jul 27, 2026)
York Space Systems Unverified
With five unique missions launching this year, we're scaling innovation to meet customer requirements and demonstrate what a truly responsive space mission provider can do.
Michael Lajczok, Chief Technology Officer · York Space Systems press release (PR Newswire) · Jun 10, 2025 · due During 2025
Said to York Space Systems press release (PR Newswire) · Jun 10, 2025
- Predicts
- York launches five unique missions during calendar 2025
- Due
- During 2025
- Where it stands
- The stated year has passed; several York missions flew in 2025 but the public record does not confirm all five. (assessed Jul 27, 2026)
Slingshot Aerospace Missed
TraCSS.gov is expected to be online and ready to support the transition of all commercial users from space-track.org in late 2025.
Slingshot Aerospace press release · Nov 26, 2024 · due Late 2025
Said to Slingshot Aerospace press release · Nov 26, 2024
- Predicts
- TraCSS.gov online and supporting the transition of commercial users from space-track.org
- Due
- Late 2025
- Where it stands
- The Office of Space Commerce says TraCSS began accepting registrations in early 2026, past the stated window; by July it listed 66 pilot users. (assessed Jul 27, 2026)
EnduroSat Unverified
We are already seeing significantly larger demand for 2025/2026. The plan is to deliver 120 units, minimum, by the end of the year.
Raycho Raychev, Founder and CEO · SpaceNews · May 27, 2025 · due End of 2025
Said to SpaceNews · May 27, 2025
- Predicts
- At least 120 satellite units delivered during calendar 2025
- Due
- End of 2025
- Where it stands
- The stated year has passed and no public record confirms or refutes the delivery count. The company passed 100 total satellites deployed in July 2026. (assessed Jul 27, 2026)
SSC (Swedish Space Corporation) Missed
SSC and South Korean rocket company Perigee Aerospace Inc. have signed a collaborative agreement to launch satellites jointly from Esrange Space Center in northern Sweden, starting 2025. Perigee's Blue Whale 1 microlauncher will be the first-ever orbital rocket launched from Esrange.
SSC press release · May 7, 2024 · due Starting 2025
Said to SSC press release · May 7, 2024
- Predicts
- Perigee's Blue Whale 1 begins launching satellites from Esrange in 2025
- Due
- Starting 2025
- Where it stands
- Blue Whale 1 has not made an orbital flight. Perigee's own launch page describes the Esrange agreement without attaching a date to it, and the only flight it lists is Blue Whale 0.1, a suborbital liquid-fuel test flown from Jeju in December 2021. Our launch record begins on 3 January 2026 and holds no orbital launch from Esrange in it; the one Esrange entry is the Themis demonstrator, a suborbital hop scheduled for 30 September 2026. Our record does not reach back into 2025, so that half rests on the company's own material rather than on data we hold. (assessed Aug 2, 2026)
Perigee's launch page, no date on the Esrange mission → Esrange's operator in our record →
Isar Aerospace Missed
This qualification flight is a deliberate step toward delivering sovereign access to space for Europe and allied nations. Just ten months after proving that launch vehicles can be designed, built, and launched from continental European soil, we're ready to fly again.
Daniel Metzler, CEO and co-founder · Isar Aerospace press release · Jan 16, 2026 · due Late January 2026
Said to Isar Aerospace press release · Jan 16, 2026
- Predicts
- Spectrum's second flight, the qualification flight for commercial service, launches on or shortly after January 21, 2026
- Due
- Late January 2026
- Where it stands
- A pressurization valve scrubbed the January attempt and the window did not reopen until mid-June, nearly five months later. Spectrum's later flight is in our record. (assessed Jul 27, 2026)
Hadrian Achieved
Both the Arizona site and Hadrian's new corporate HQ are slated to be fully operational by January 2026—just six months from now
Hadrian blog, Series C announcement · Jul 17, 2025 · due January 2026
Said to Hadrian blog, Series C announcement · Jul 17, 2025
- Predicts
- Factory 3 in Mesa, Arizona and the new headquarters fully operational by January 2026
- Due
- January 2026
- Where it stands
- Factory 3 opened in Mesa on January 29, described as already in production. (assessed Jul 27, 2026)
AAC Clyde Space Missed
Our long-term trajectory remains clear. The updated guidance mainly reflects timing in the award of one major programme and an issue between a customer and a supplier.
Luis Gomes, CEO · AAC Clyde Space press release (beQuoted) · Nov 6, 2025 · due FY 2025 results
Said to AAC Clyde Space press release (beQuoted) · Nov 6, 2025
- Predicts
- FY2025 net sales about 10% below 2024, positive full-year EBITDA
- Due
- FY 2025 results
- Where it stands
- Net sales fell 16.3%, deeper than the roughly 10% guided; the positive-EBITDA half of the guidance held, at SEK 17.5 million. (assessed Jul 27, 2026)
GomSpace Achieved
Our operational execution remains strong, and we are on track to deliver strong revenue and EBITDA margin for 2025.
Carsten Drachmann, CEO · GomSpace press release · Dec 19, 2025 · due FY 2025 results
Said to GomSpace press release · Dec 19, 2025
- Predicts
- FY2025 revenue in the upper half of 420-450 million SEK and EBITDA margin in the upper half of the guided range
- Due
- FY 2025 results
- Where it stands
- Revenue came in at 441.8 million SEK, up 72%, with an adjusted EBITDA margin of 12% at the high end of the range. (assessed Jul 27, 2026)
BlackSky Missed
the Company is maintaining its full-year 2025 guidance of revenue between $125 million and $142 million, adjusted EBITDA between $14 million and $22 million, and capital expenditures between $60 million and $70 million.
BlackSky press release · May 8, 2025 · due FY 2025 results
Said to BlackSky press release · May 8, 2025
- Predicts
- Full-year 2025 revenue of at least $125 million
- Due
- FY 2025 results
- Where it stands
- Full-year 2025 revenue came in at $106.6 million, below the maintained range. The 2026 guidance was reset to $120 million to $145 million. (assessed Jul 27, 2026)
Velo3D Missed
Management expects the following for fiscal year 2025: Revenue in the range of $50 million to $60 million.
SEC EDGAR, Q4/FY2024 results exhibit · Mar 31, 2025 · due FY 2025 results
Said to SEC EDGAR, Q4/FY2024 results exhibit · Mar 31, 2025
- Predicts
- Fiscal 2025 revenue between $50 million and $60 million
- Due
- FY 2025 results
- Where it stands
- Full-year 2025 revenue came in at $46 million, below the range, and the guidance had been reaffirmed as late as November. (assessed Jul 27, 2026)
AST SpaceMobile Missed
We continue to expect launches planned every one to two months on average, starting with our first New Glenn launch expected in March.
Abel Avellan, Chairman and CEO · Q4 2025 earnings call (Motley Fool transcript) · Mar 2, 2026 · due March 2026
Said to Q4 2025 earnings call (Motley Fool transcript) · Mar 2, 2026
- Predicts
- A first New Glenn launch of Block 2 BlueBirds in March 2026, then a launch every one to two months on average
- Due
- March 2026
- Where it stands
- The New Glenn flight went on April 19, not in March, and its upper stage left BlueBird 7 in an orbit too low to save. The satellite was lost. (assessed Jul 27, 2026)
The April 19 launch failure in our record → Spaceflight Now on the wrong orbit →
Stoke Space Unverified
Launch Complex 14 at Cape Canaveral Space Force Station, Florida, which is scheduled for activation in early 2026.
Stoke Space press release · Oct 8, 2025 · due Early 2026
Said to Stoke Space press release · Oct 8, 2025
- Predicts
- Launch Complex 14 at Cape Canaveral is activated and ready for Nova operations in early 2026
- Due
- Early 2026
- Where it stands
- The stated window has passed; the public record does not yet show the pad active, and does not say it is not. (assessed Jul 27, 2026)
Thales Alenia Space Achieved
The IOD-2 satellite is preparing for a launch scheduled for March 2026.
Thales Alenia Space website · Feb 20, 2026 · due March 2026
Said to Thales Alenia Space website · Feb 20, 2026
- Predicts
- Celeste IOD-2 satellite launches in March 2026
- Due
- March 2026
- Where it stands
- IOD-1 and IOD-2 flew on an Electron on March 28. (assessed Jul 27, 2026)
CesiumAstro Missed
The company is self-funding the build and launch of the first Element satellite to demonstrate the technology, targeted to launch in the fourth quarter of 2025 or the first quarter of 2026.
Via Satellite · Oct 1, 2024 · due Q4 2025 or Q1 2026
Said to Via Satellite · Oct 1, 2024
- Predicts
- The first Element demonstration satellite launches by the end of Q1 2026
- Due
- Q4 2025 or Q1 2026
- Where it stands
- The window passed without a launch; in early March the company was still seeking FCC approval for Element-1. (assessed Jul 27, 2026)
NASA Artemis program Achieved
The launch window could open as early as the fifth of February, but we want to emphasise that safety is our top priority.
Lakiesha Hawkins, Acting Deputy Associate Administrator · Al Jazeera, from a Johnson Space Center press conference · Sep 23, 2025 · due No later than April 2026
Said to Al Jazeera, from a Johnson Space Center press conference · Sep 23, 2025
- Predicts
- Artemis II flies its crewed lunar flyby in a window opening February 5, 2026, and no later than April 2026
- Due
- No later than April 2026
- Where it stands
- The February window passed, and the April backstop held: Artemis II launched April 1 and splashed down April 10 after the flyby. The flight is in our record. (assessed Jul 27, 2026)
Lockheed Martin Space Achieved
Scheduled to launch in early 2026, Artemis II and the Orion spacecraft will host NASA astronauts Reid Wiseman, Victor Glover, Christina Koch and Canadian astronaut Jeremy Hansen.
Lockheed Martin press release · May 1, 2025 · due Early 2026
Said to Lockheed Martin press release · May 1, 2025
- Predicts
- Artemis II launches with crew aboard Orion in early 2026
- Due
- Early 2026
- Where it stands
- Artemis II launched on April 1 at the edge of the stated window; the flight is in our record. (assessed Jul 27, 2026)
LeoLabs Achieved
LeoLabs is on track to operationalize its first containerized Scout at a site in Hawaii in early 2026
LeoLabs press release (PR Newswire) · Jan 27, 2026 · due Early 2026
Said to LeoLabs press release (PR Newswire) · Jan 27, 2026
- Predicts
- First containerized Scout radar operational in Hawaii in early 2026
- Due
- Early 2026
- Where it stands
- The first fielded Scout-S was announced as deployed and operational in June, observing satellites within hours of activation, a little past the stated window. (assessed Jul 27, 2026)
Rocket Lab Achieved
We expect revenue in the first quarter to range between $185,000,000 and $200,000,000.
Adam Spice, CFO · Q4 2025 earnings call (Motley Fool transcript) · Feb 26, 2026 · due Q1 2026 results
Said to Q4 2025 earnings call (Motley Fool transcript) · Feb 26, 2026
- Predicts
- Q1 2026 revenue between $185 million and $200 million
- Due
- Q1 2026 results
- Where it stands
- Reported $200.3 million on May 7, at the top of the range and slightly past it. (assessed Jul 27, 2026)
AST SpaceMobile Achieved
The company is currently in production through BlueBird 32, with BlueBird 8 to 10 expected to be ready to ship in approximately 30 days
Form 8-K filed the day after the launch failure · Apr 20, 2026 · due Mid-May 2026
Said to Form 8-K filed the day after the launch failure · Apr 20, 2026
- Predicts
- BlueBird 8, 9 and 10 ready to ship around mid-May 2026, keeping the deployment plan alive after the loss
- Due
- Mid-May 2026
- Where it stands
- The three satellites flew on a Falcon 9 on June 17, about a month later than the shipping date implied, after the company moved the mission off New Glenn. (assessed Jul 27, 2026)
Vast Missed
We're progressing on track aligned with our scheduled launch of Haven-1 in May 2026. We will complete the manufacturing and testing of the flight primary structure in July 2025...
Spaceflight Now · May 7, 2025 · due May 2026
Said to Spaceflight Now · May 7, 2025
- Predicts
- Haven-1, the first commercial space station module, launches on a Falcon 9 in May 2026
- Due
- May 2026
- Where it stands
- In January the company moved the launch to no earlier than the first quarter of 2027, citing system integration taking longer than planned. (assessed Jul 27, 2026)
Apex Missed
Flying on one of Apex's commercial off-the-shelf satellite platforms, Project Shadow is scheduled to launch in June 2026.
Apex blog · Oct 22, 2025 · due June 2026
Said to Apex blog · Oct 22, 2025
- Predicts
- Project Shadow launches in June 2026
- Due
- June 2026
- Where it stands
- The mission flew about a month past the stated date, in July. (assessed Jul 27, 2026)
ATLAS Space Operations Unverified
The station is expected to enter full operational service for commercial and government clients by June 2026.
SatNews · Mar 11, 2026 · due By June 2026
Said to SatNews · Mar 11, 2026
- Predicts
- The American Samoa ground station fully operational by June 2026
- Due
- By June 2026
- Where it stands
- The stated month has passed and no public record confirms the station entered service. (assessed Jul 27, 2026)
Velo3D Missed
Reaffirms expectation to be EBITDA positive in the first half of 2026
SEC EDGAR, Q3 2025 results exhibit · Nov 10, 2025 · due First half of 2026
Said to SEC EDGAR, Q3 2025 results exhibit · Nov 10, 2025
- Predicts
- EBITDA turns positive in the first half of 2026
- Due
- First half of 2026
- Where it stands
- With the FY2025 results the company moved the target to the second half of 2026. (assessed Jul 27, 2026)
Hadrian Missed
Over the next year, Hadrian plans to announce and scale four to five additional facilities
Hadrian blog, Series C announcement · Jul 17, 2025 · due By mid-2026
Said to Hadrian blog, Series C announcement · Jul 17, 2025
- Predicts
- Four to five additional facilities announced and scaling by mid-2026
- Due
- By mid-2026
- Where it stands
- Announcements are public by nature, and one facility, the Navy-partnered Factory 4, was announced and opened within the stated year. The four-to-five figure did not arrive. (assessed Jul 27, 2026)
AAC Clyde Space Pending
During the next six months, we expect to launch fifteen satellites for ourselves and our customers. This includes the first two VIREON™ Earth observation satellites, an important step in expanding our data offering.
Luis Gomes, CEO · AAC Clyde Space year-end report (beQuoted) · Feb 19, 2026 · due By late August 2026
Said to AAC Clyde Space year-end report (beQuoted) · Feb 19, 2026
- Predicts
- Fifteen AAC-built satellites launched between February and August 2026, including VIREON-1 and VIREON-2
- Due
- By late August 2026
- Where it stands
- VIREON-1 and VIREON-2 flew on Transporter-16 on March 30. The fifteen-satellite tally is not yet checkable from public records. (assessed Jul 27, 2026)
Impulse Space Pending
The first of these missions will be the inaugural launch of Helios and is targeted for mid-2026.
Impulse Space press release · Nov 14, 2024 · due Mid-2026
Said to Impulse Space press release · Nov 14, 2024
- Predicts
- The first Helios kick-stage mission flies on a Falcon 9, carrying a Mira vehicle toward GEO
- Due
- Mid-2026
- Where it stands
- The middle of 2026 is here and our launch record holds no Helios flight yet. (assessed Jul 27, 2026)
Apex Pending
The mission is slated to fire demonstration-class space-based interceptors on orbit within the next year.
Apex blog · Oct 22, 2025 · due By October 2026
Said to Apex blog · Oct 22, 2025
- Predicts
- On-orbit firing of demonstration space-based interceptors within a year of the October 2025 announcement
- Due
- By October 2026
- Where it stands
- The host platform reached orbit in July. (assessed Jul 27, 2026)
AST SpaceMobile At risk
We remain on track to achieve our target of deploying 45 to 60 satellites into low Earth orbit by the end of this year, with current expectations closer to 60 satellites ready to ship and 45 satellites in orbit.
Abel Avellan, Chairman and CEO · Q4 2025 earnings call (Motley Fool transcript) · Mar 2, 2026 · due End of 2026
Said to Q4 2025 earnings call (Motley Fool transcript) · Mar 2, 2026
- Predicts
- About 45 Block 2 BlueBird satellites in orbit by the end of 2026, with up to 60 ready to ship
- Due
- End of 2026
- Where it stands
- BlueBird 7 was lost in the April 19 launch failure. The company reaffirmed the target the next day, and the June 17 Falcon 9 flight delivered three more satellites; reaching 45 in orbit by December requires a pace the record has not yet shown. (assessed Jul 27, 2026)
The April 19 failure → The June 17 recovery flight → The next batch on the schedule
SpaceX At risk
Starship departs for Mars at the end of next year, carrying Optimus. If those landings go well, then human landings may start as soon as 2029, although 2031 is more likely.
Elon Musk, CEO · Digital Trends, quoting Musk's X post · Mar 15, 2025 · due End of 2026
Said to Digital Trends, quoting Musk's X post · Mar 15, 2025
- Predicts
- An uncrewed Starship departs for Mars carrying an Optimus robot by the end of 2026
- Due
- End of 2026
- Where it stands
- Our launch schedule holds no Mars departure, and the Earth-Mars transfer window this claim depends on closes at the end of the year. Starship has flown thirteen times; none of the flights left Earth orbit. (assessed Jul 27, 2026)
Rocket Lab Pending
Neutron's first launch is now targeted for Q4 2026.
Peter Beck, Founder and CEO · Q4 2025 earnings call (Motley Fool transcript) · Feb 26, 2026 · due Q4 2026
Said to Q4 2025 earnings call (Motley Fool transcript) · Feb 26, 2026
- Predicts
- Neutron's first launch in the fourth quarter of 2026
- Due
- Q4 2026
- Where it stands
- The revised target after a Stage 1 tank manufacturing defect forced design changes. This is the second stated date for the same debut; the first is above, marked missed. (assessed Jul 27, 2026)
Blue Origin At risk
We want to be hardware rich. So, you know, we want to try to keep building as fast as we can, and then with practice I think our launch cadence can go up.
Dave Limp, CEO · Space Explored · Nov 29, 2025 · due During 2026
Said to Space Explored · Nov 29, 2025
- Predicts
- A double-digit New Glenn launch count, around 12 flights, during 2026
- Due
- During 2026
- Where it stands
- The vehicle assigned to the fourth flight exploded during a static fire on 28 May, destroying the rocket and heavily damaging Launch Complex 36: the lightning tower toppled and the transporter erector was destroyed beyond repair. That pad is the only operational New Glenn site, and it is being rebuilt to a different design. Three New Glenn flights have happened in total. In June the company stated a separate objective of returning to flight before the end of the year, and the twelve-flight statement has not been revised. The recovery has moved fast: debris was cleared in nine days and construction began inside a month. Twelve flights during 2026 is not reachable from three with the only pad under reconstruction. (assessed Aug 2, 2026)
The April New Glenn flight in our record → TechCrunch on the test explosion → SpaceNews on the pad rebuild → Spaceflight Now on the return-to-flight logistics →
Firefly Aerospace Pending
Blue Ghost mission two, targeted to launch next year, is well underway.
Jason Kim, CEO · Q3 2025 earnings call (Motley Fool transcript) · Nov 12, 2025 · due During 2026
Said to Q3 2025 earnings call (Motley Fool transcript) · Nov 12, 2025
- Predicts
- Blue Ghost Mission 2 launches to the far side of the Moon during 2026
- Due
- During 2026
- Where it stands
- Not launched as of the company's May results, which reported progress on the mission's deployment hardware. Five months remain against the stated year. (assessed Jul 27, 2026)
United Launch Alliance At risk
We expect to hit our twice-a-month tempo before the end of the year, so that as we roll into 2026 that forecast is somewhere between 20 and 25 launches.
Tory Bruno, President and CEO · Aerospace America · Aug 7, 2025 · due During 2026
Said to Aerospace America · Aug 7, 2025
- Predicts
- Between 20 and 25 ULA launches during calendar 2026
- Due
- During 2026
- Where it stands
- Our record holds five ULA flights since February. Reaching twenty in the year would need a pace the record has not shown in any quarter. (assessed Jul 27, 2026)
Sierra Space Pending
Sierra Space remains focused on completing the final phases of testing and preparation to ensure Dream Chaser's successful first flight, planned for late 2025 and now anticipated in late 2026 due to launch vehicle availability.
Spaceflight Now · Sep 26, 2025 · due Late 2026
Said to Spaceflight Now · Sep 26, 2025
- Predicts
- Dream Chaser Tenacity flies its first orbital mission, recast as a free flyer without an ISS docking
- Due
- Late 2026
- Where it stands
- The mission depends on a Vulcan ride, and Vulcan has flown once this year. (assessed Jul 27, 2026)
Intuitive Machines Pending
IM-3 is progressing well, as all robotic mechanisms from our Maryland facility delivered in the fourth quarter. Now our team is working on lander assembly, integration, and test for the mission later this year.
Stephen Altemus, President and CEO · Q4 2025 earnings call (Motley Fool transcript) · Mar 19, 2026 · due Second half of 2026
Said to Q4 2025 earnings call (Motley Fool transcript) · Mar 19, 2026
- Predicts
- The IM-3 lunar lander mission, carrying the first lunar data relay satellite, launches later in 2026
- Due
- Second half of 2026
- Where it stands
- Stated alongside 2026 revenue guidance of $900 million to $1 billion. Nothing on our launch calendar names it yet. (assessed Jul 27, 2026)
Globalstar Pending
Continue advancing our satellite constellation roadmap with two planned launches during 2026 and further development of next-generation satellites
Paul E. Jacobs, CEO, in the annual report · Globalstar 2025 annual report (via StockTitan) · Apr 2, 2026 · due During 2026
Said to Globalstar 2025 annual report (via StockTitan) · Apr 2, 2026
- Predicts
- Two satellite launches during 2026 for the C-3 constellation program
- Due
- During 2026
- Where it stands
- Neither launch has appeared in our record so far this year. (assessed Jul 27, 2026)
Relativity Space At risk
Relativity said it is planning a first launch of Terran R as soon as late 2026 from its launch complex at Cape Canaveral, Florida.
SpaceNews · Mar 10, 2025 · due Late 2026
Said to SpaceNews · Mar 10, 2025
- Predicts
- Terran R makes its first launch from Cape Canaveral by late 2026
- Due
- Late 2026
- Where it stands
- June coverage of the NASA Mars award gave no first-launch date and noted fundraising strain before the rocket reaches the pad. (assessed Jul 27, 2026)
Astranis Pending
The first satellites are set to launch in 2026.
Via Satellite · Apr 10, 2024 · due During 2026
Said to Via Satellite · Apr 10, 2024
- Predicts
- The first Omega MicroGEO satellites launch to geostationary orbit during 2026
- Due
- During 2026
- Where it stands
- Five months remain in the stated year; our record holds no Omega launch. (assessed Jul 27, 2026)
Arianespace Pending
We think at this cadence, taking into account the performance of Ariane 6, we can deliver a lot.
David Cavaillolès, CEO · European Spaceflight · Nov 6, 2025 · due During 2026
Said to European Spaceflight · Nov 6, 2025
- Predicts
- Six to eight Ariane 6 launches completed during calendar 2026
- Due
- During 2026
- Where it stands
- Three flights had flown by mid-June; reaching six needs a fast second half. (assessed Jul 27, 2026)
L3Harris / Aerojet Rocketdyne Pending
The aim is to complete construction in the third or fourth quarter of 2026 and then begin moving into production in early 2027, Scott Alexander, L3Harris' missile solutions president, told reporters.
Scott Alexander, President, Missile Solutions, L3Harris · Defense News · May 22, 2025 · due Q3 or Q4 2026
Said to Defense News · May 22, 2025
- Predicts
- Virginia solid rocket motor facility construction finished in Q3 or Q4 2026, production starting early 2027
- Due
- Q3 or Q4 2026
- Where it stands
- Construction continues at the Orange, Virginia campus. (assessed Jul 27, 2026)
Agile Space Industries Pending
Agile has about $60M in contracted backlog, and has won contracts that, together, could double the company's revenue this year, according to Pearson.
Chris Pearson, CEO · Payload · Feb 18, 2026 · due During 2026
Said to Payload · Feb 18, 2026
- Predicts
- Agile's 2026 revenue roughly doubles versus 2025
- Due
- During 2026
- Where it stands
- Stated with the Series A, alongside about $60 million of contracted backlog. (assessed Jul 27, 2026)
Lockheed Martin Space At risk
T2TL Beta will consist of 72 satellites and will be deployed into orbit over a series of launches beginning in 2026 and will undergo a continuous checkout and commissioning process for acceptance into operations.
Lockheed Martin press release (PR Newswire) · Aug 21, 2023 · due During 2026
Said to Lockheed Martin press release (PR Newswire) · Aug 21, 2023
- Predicts
- Tranche 2 Transport Layer Beta launches begin in 2026
- Due
- During 2026
- Where it stands
- The Space Development Agency now anticipates Tranche 2 launches starting in fiscal 2027. (assessed Jul 27, 2026)
Northrop Grumman Achieved
Northrop Grumman's SpaceLogistics subsidiary is eyeing a 2026 launch for its next-generation satellite servicing vehicle, the Mission Robotic Vehicle (MRV).
SpaceNews · Nov 14, 2024 · due During 2026
Said to SpaceNews · Nov 14, 2024
- Predicts
- Mission Robotic Vehicle launches in 2026
- Due
- During 2026
- Where it stands
- The MRV flew on a Falcon 9 on July 21; the flight is in our record. (assessed Jul 27, 2026)
Apex Pending
The target delivery timeline: Five platforms in 2024, 20 platforms in 2025, 50 platforms in 2026
Payload · Dec 14, 2023 · due During 2026
Said to Payload · Dec 14, 2023
- Predicts
- Apex delivers five satellite platforms in 2024, 20 in 2025, and 50 in 2026
- Due
- During 2026
- Where it stands
- The company does not publish delivery counts, so the 2024 and 2025 steps of the ramp are not publicly checkable either. (assessed Jul 27, 2026)
Slingshot Aerospace Pending
The platform will evolve throughout 2026 to support advanced maneuver intelligence, predictive analytics, and scenario-based planning capabilities designed to meet increasingly complex mission demands.
Slingshot Aerospace press release · Apr 14, 2026 · due During 2026
Said to Slingshot Aerospace press release · Apr 14, 2026
- Predicts
- Portal ships maneuver intelligence, predictive analytics and scenario planning during 2026
- Due
- During 2026
- Where it stands
- A product roadmap stated at the Portal launch in April. (assessed Jul 27, 2026)
SSC (Swedish Space Corporation) Superseded
Swedish Space Corporation (SSC) and U.S. space transportation company Firefly Aerospace have signed a collaborative agreement to jointly launch satellites with Firefly's Alpha rocket from the newly inaugurated spaceport at Esrange Space Center in Sweden, starting in 2026.
SSC press release · Jun 27, 2024 · due During 2026
Said to SSC press release · Jun 27, 2024
- Predicts
- Firefly Alpha performs its first orbital launch from Esrange during 2026
- Due
- During 2026
- Where it stands
- A June 2026 joint milestone release states the pad is in final construction with the first launch now targeted for 2028. (assessed Jul 27, 2026)
Gravitics Superseded
Gravitics expects to demonstrate Orbital Carrier's ability to operate in space and deploy assets on orbit as early as next year.
Payload · Mar 26, 2025 · due As early as 2026
Said to Payload · Mar 26, 2025
- Predicts
- Orbital Carrier demonstrated in space during 2026
- Due
- As early as 2026
- Where it stands
- By April 2026 the company's stated plan moved to a pathfinder mission in 2027 with a Viper OTX flight in 2028. (assessed Jul 27, 2026)
Honeywell Aerospace Achieved
Honeywell (NASDAQ: HON) today announced its updated business segment structure ahead of the planned separation of its Aerospace Technologies business, expected in the second half of 2026
Honeywell press release (PR Newswire) · Oct 22, 2025 · due Second half of 2026
Said to Honeywell press release (PR Newswire) · Oct 22, 2025
- Predicts
- Honeywell Aerospace separates into an independent public company in the second half of 2026
- Due
- Second half of 2026
- Where it stands
- The spin-off completed on June 29, a day inside the first half, ahead of the stated window. (assessed Jul 27, 2026)
Blue Origin At risk
We will return to flight by the end of this year.
Dave Limp, CEO · Blue Origin, NG-4 Hotfire Updates (reported by TechCrunch) · Jun 2, 2026 · due End of 2026
Said to Blue Origin, NG-4 Hotfire Updates (reported by TechCrunch) · Jun 2, 2026
- Predicts
- A New Glenn flight occurs on or before 31 December 2026
- Due
- End of 2026
- Where it stands
- Said five days after the static fire that destroyed the NG-4 vehicle and the pad it stood on. What the date asks for is legible in the record: Launch Complex 36 rebuilt and back in service inside roughly seven months, and rebuilt to a different design, because the transporter erector is not being replaced. The stages are to be rolled out on a wheeled vehicle and craned into place instead. That is a new way of working a pad, proven on nothing yet, and it is the named constraint that puts this at risk. The same record carries the other side. Debris was cleared in nine days, construction was under way inside a month, and the company has held the date in public since. Meeting it would be a hard thing done quickly, and we will say so on this page if they do. (assessed Aug 2, 2026)
SpaceNews on the pad rebuild → Spaceflight Now on the return-to-flight logistics → The April New Glenn flight in our record →
Planet Labs Pending
For the full fiscal year 2027, we expect revenue to be between $415,000,000 and $440,000,000, representing approximately 39% growth at the midpoint.
Ashley Johnson, CFO · Q4 FY2026 earnings call (Motley Fool transcript) · Mar 19, 2026 · due FY 2027, ends January 2027
Said to Q4 FY2026 earnings call (Motley Fool transcript) · Mar 19, 2026
- Predicts
- Fiscal 2027 revenue between $415 million and $440 million
- Due
- FY 2027, ends January 2027
- Where it stands
- Guidance set after a year of large government agreements in Europe. The fiscal year runs to the end of January. (assessed Jul 27, 2026)
Planet Labs Pending
We are scaling our Pelican fleet with multiple launches scheduled this year.
Will Marshall, Co-founder and CEO · Q4 FY2026 earnings call (Motley Fool transcript) · Mar 19, 2026 · due During FY 2027
Said to Q4 FY2026 earnings call (Motley Fool transcript) · Mar 19, 2026
- Predicts
- Multiple Pelican high-resolution satellite launches during the fiscal year
- Due
- During FY 2027
- Where it stands
- Stated with a manufacturing expansion in Berlin intended to roughly double Pelican build capacity. (assessed Jul 27, 2026)
L3Harris / Aerojet Rocketdyne Pending
As we look to 2026, our investments in technology and capacity along with a record backlog and strong demand signals give us confidence to deliver strong results.
Christopher Kubasik, Chairman and CEO, L3Harris · L3Harris Q4 2025 earnings release (via TradingView) · Jan 29, 2026 · due FY 2026, reported January 2027
Said to L3Harris Q4 2025 earnings release (via TradingView) · Jan 29, 2026
- Predicts
- L3Harris reports FY2026 revenue of $23-23.5 billion, diluted EPS of $11.30-11.50, and free cash flow of about $3.0 billion
- Due
- FY 2026, reported January 2027
- Where it stands
- Initiated with the 2025 results. (assessed Jul 27, 2026)
Teledyne Space Pending
Based on its current outlook, the company's management believes that full year 2026 GAAP diluted earnings per share will be in the range of $20.73 to $20.99.
SEC EDGAR, Teledyne Q2 2026 earnings exhibit · Jul 22, 2026 · due FY 2026 results
Said to SEC EDGAR, Teledyne Q2 2026 earnings exhibit · Jul 22, 2026
- Predicts
- Full-year 2026 GAAP diluted EPS of $20.73 to $20.99
- Due
- FY 2026 results
- Where it stands
- Raised guidance after record second-quarter orders, with the strongest organic growth in imaging for space. Corporate-level guidance; Teledyne does not break out space alone. (assessed Jul 27, 2026)
AAC Clyde Space Pending
Net sales: SEK 440-510 M; EBITDA margin: approximately 10 percent; Cash flow from operating activities: positive
AAC Clyde Space press release (beQuoted) · Apr 28, 2026 · due FY 2026, reported early 2027
Said to AAC Clyde Space press release (beQuoted) · Apr 28, 2026
- Predicts
- FY2026 net sales of SEK 440-510 million at roughly 10 percent EBITDA margin
- Due
- FY 2026, reported early 2027
- Where it stands
- First formal 2026 guidance, resting on backlog and the EPS-Sterna program. (assessed Jul 27, 2026)
GomSpace Pending
Revenue: 540-640 M.SEK; EBITDA margin: 5% to 12%
GomSpace Q4 2025 report · Feb 19, 2026 · due FY 2026, reported early 2027
Said to GomSpace Q4 2025 report · Feb 19, 2026
- Predicts
- FY2026 revenue between 540 and 640 million SEK with an EBITDA margin of 5% to 12%
- Due
- FY 2026, reported early 2027
- Where it stands
- Over 30% growth at the midpoint, set after a year in which revenue grew 72%. (assessed Jul 27, 2026)
Firefly Aerospace Pending
Firefly expects 2026 full-year revenue to be between $420 million and $450 million.
SEC EDGAR, Form 8-K exhibit · May 4, 2026 · due FY 2026, reported early 2027
Said to SEC EDGAR, Form 8-K exhibit · May 4, 2026
- Predicts
- Full-year 2026 revenue between $420 million and $450 million
- Due
- FY 2026, reported early 2027
- Where it stands
- Restated with the first-quarter results, which the company called a record quarter. The full-year report decides it. (assessed Jul 27, 2026)
Redwire Pending
For the full year ended December 31, 2026, Redwire is forecasting revenues of $450 million to $500 million.
Redwire press release · Feb 25, 2026 · due FY 2026, reported early 2027
Said to Redwire press release · Feb 25, 2026
- Predicts
- Full-year 2026 revenue between $450 million and $500 million
- Due
- FY 2026, reported early 2027
- Where it stands
- The first full-year forecast after the Edge Autonomy acquisition. The annual report decides it. (assessed Jul 27, 2026)
Axiom Space At risk
Because we're reusing 85% of the stuff—and in some cases simplifying [the build] because we won't need all of the life support for the first module—we can still launch that first module in early '27
Matt Ondler, Chief Strategy Officer · Payload · Dec 18, 2024 · due Early 2027
Said to Payload · Dec 18, 2024
- Predicts
- Axiom's first station module, the Payload Power Thermal Module, launches to the ISS in early 2027
- Due
- Early 2027
- Where it stands
- Later coverage of the module says late 2027, with a free-flying two-module station expected by 2028. (assessed Jul 27, 2026)
Avio Pending
Net Revenues: EUR 560 - 590 million ... EBITDA Reported: EUR 27 - 35 million ... Net Income: EUR 8 - 13 million
Avio press release · Mar 12, 2026 · due FY 2026, reported early 2027
Said to Avio press release · Mar 12, 2026
- Predicts
- Avio reports FY2026 net revenues of EUR 560-590 million and net income of EUR 8-13 million
- Due
- FY 2026, reported early 2027
- Where it stands
- Set with a record order backlog of EUR 2.17 billion. (assessed Jul 27, 2026)
Velo3D Pending
Expects 2026 revenue between $60 million and $70 million
SEC EDGAR, Q4/FY2025 results exhibit · Mar 24, 2026 · due FY 2026, reported early 2027
Said to SEC EDGAR, Q4/FY2025 results exhibit · Mar 24, 2026
- Predicts
- FY2026 revenue of $60-70 million with positive EBITDA in the second half
- Due
- FY 2026, reported early 2027
- Where it stands
- Set alongside the missed 2025 range above, and reaffirmed in May. (assessed Jul 27, 2026)
Northrop Grumman Pending
After launch this summer, the MRV will take roughly one year to reach its orbit.
Via Satellite · May 19, 2026 · due Mid-2027
Said to Via Satellite · May 19, 2026
- Predicts
- MRV reaches its operational GEO orbit roughly one year after its summer 2026 launch
- Due
- Mid-2027
- Where it stands
- An electric-propulsion transit of about a year to reach the servicing orbit. (assessed Jul 27, 2026)
Airbus Defence and Space Pending
New company could be operational in 2027, subject to regulatory approvals and satisfaction of other closing conditions.
Airbus press release (joint with Leonardo and Thales) · Oct 23, 2025 · due During 2027
Said to Airbus press release (joint with Leonardo and Thales) · Oct 23, 2025
- Predicts
- The combined European space company (Project Bromo) is operational in 2027
- Due
- During 2027
- Where it stands
- Subject to regulatory approvals and closing conditions. (assessed Jul 27, 2026)
Thales Alenia Space Pending
Once the full Celeste demonstrator constellation is in orbit by 2027, ESA will be able to assess how a LEO navigation layer can operate alongside Galileo and other MEO navigation systems.
Thales Alenia Space website · Feb 20, 2026 · due By 2027
Said to Thales Alenia Space website · Feb 20, 2026
- Predicts
- Full Celeste demonstrator constellation in orbit by 2027
- Due
- By 2027
- Where it stands
- Thales Alenia Space builds five of the demonstrator spacecraft. (assessed Jul 27, 2026)
LeoLabs Pending
Under the selection, LeoLabs will develop, deploy, and operate a Seeker-class Ultra High Frequency (UHF) planar Direct Radiating Array (DRA) radar in the Indo-Pacific region by 2027.
LeoLabs press release · Mar 14, 2025 · due By 2027
Said to LeoLabs press release · Mar 14, 2025
- Predicts
- A Seeker-class UHF radar deployed and operating in the Indo-Pacific region
- Due
- By 2027
- Where it stands
- Backed by a $60 million strategic funding increase split between AFRL, other government sponsors and private capital. (assessed Jul 27, 2026)
KSAT Pending
KSAT has officially signed a contract for launch with SpaceX, securing the ride to orbit for the first satellites of Hyper. The mission is targeting launch in late 2027, marking a major milestone in the project's journey from design to space.
KSAT news release · Dec 10, 2025 · due Late 2027
Said to KSAT news release · Dec 10, 2025
- Predicts
- The first Hyper relay satellites launch on a SpaceX vehicle in late 2027
- Due
- Late 2027
- Where it stands
- The launch contract is signed and the Hyperion demonstration mission carries the same stated window. (assessed Jul 27, 2026)
Gravitics Pending
These will be tested in the company's first mission targeted for 2027, to be followed by a Viper OTX mission in 2028 to demonstrate on-orbit mobility by delivering a third-party payload to a higher-energy orbit.
SpaceNews · Apr 13, 2026 · due During 2027
Said to SpaceNews · Apr 13, 2026
- Predicts
- A pathfinder mission flies in 2027, with Viper OTX following in 2028
- Due
- During 2027
- Where it stands
- The replacement for the 2026 target above, under an expanded Space Force agreement. (assessed Jul 27, 2026)
SpaceX Pending
We expect to begin deploying our orbital AI compute satellites as early as 2028.
SEC EDGAR, 424B4 prospectus · Jun 12, 2026 · due As early as 2028
Said to SEC EDGAR, 424B4 prospectus · Jun 12, 2026
- Predicts
- Deployment of orbital AI compute satellites, the data-center constellation the prospectus is built around, begins in 2028
- Due
- As early as 2028
- Where it stands
- The claim anchors the AI story in the offering document, which mentions AI 1,026 times against 63 mentions of Mars. Nothing in the launch record yet shows a compute-satellite mission. (assessed Jul 27, 2026)
Avio Pending
He said Avio is targeting a first launch of Vega E in 2027 or 2028.
Giulio Ranzo, CEO · SpaceNews · Dec 19, 2024 · due 2027 or 2028
Said to SpaceNews · Dec 19, 2024
- Predicts
- First launch of the Vega E rocket occurs in 2027 or 2028
- Due
- 2027 or 2028
- Where it stands
- Stated alongside the ESA development contracts for Vega E. (assessed Jul 27, 2026)
Agile Space Industries Pending
TEC will integrate an undisclosed number of the CO-based propulsion startup's DS250 bipropellant rocket thrusters into the outer mold line of the Nyx spacecraft for TEC's upcoming ISS supply run in 2028.
Payload · Aug 12, 2025 · due During 2028
Said to Payload · Aug 12, 2025
- Predicts
- Agile DS250 thrusters fly on The Exploration Company's Nyx ISS resupply mission in 2028
- Due
- During 2028
- Where it stands
- Contracted; the mission is two years out. (assessed Jul 27, 2026)
Airbus Defence and Space Pending
Airbus is working with TAS, ESA and NASA to maintain and upgrade various elements of the Rosalind Franklin rover in preparation for its planned launch in 2028 on a NASA supplied launcher. The rover is planned to touchdown on the surface of Mars in 2030 to avoid landing during the planet's global dust season.
Airbus press release · Mar 29, 2025 · due During 2028
Said to Airbus press release · Mar 29, 2025
- Predicts
- ExoMars Rosalind Franklin rover launches in 2028 and lands on Mars in 2030
- Due
- During 2028
- Where it stands
- On a NASA-supplied launcher, with the Mars landing planned for 2030. (assessed Jul 27, 2026)
Maxar Space Systems Pending
EchoStar XXVI is scheduled for delivery in 2028.
Maxar Space Systems press release (via SatNews) · Jun 2, 2025 · due During 2028
Said to Maxar Space Systems press release (via SatNews) · Jun 2, 2025
- Predicts
- EchoStar XXVI delivered to EchoStar in 2028
- Due
- During 2028
- Where it stands
- The company was renamed Lanteris in October 2025; the delivery date rides the contract. (assessed Jul 27, 2026)
Voyager Technologies Pending
Starship, SpaceX's fully reusable transportation system designed to carry both crew and cargo to Earth orbit, the Moon, Mars and beyond, will launch Starlab in a single mission prior to the decommissioning of the International Space Station.
Starlab Space press release · Jan 31, 2024 · due Before ISS decommissioning
Said to Starlab Space press release · Jan 31, 2024
- Predicts
- The complete Starlab station reaches orbit on one Starship flight before the ISS is retired
- Due
- Before ISS decommissioning
- Where it stands
- Company statements since have pointed at 2029. The station and the launch vehicle both have work left to do. (assessed Jul 27, 2026)
How this list works
A claim enters the record as a verbatim quote; we never paraphrase into it. A status changes only when a dated event supports the change, and the event is linked. Missed means the stated date passed and the record shows the outcome did not occur; it is a date comparison, not a judgment of honesty. Unverified means the date passed and the public record establishes neither outcome. At risk means the date is still ahead but a named constraint in the record, a required pace not yet shown, a launch not on any manifest, a failed test, a slipped dependency, or the company's own revision, weighs against it. Superseded means the company changed this claim: the same commitment carries a new date or a new figure, in their words. A separate goal stated alongside a claim does not supersede it, and both stay on the record under what each one said. We report what companies state and never infer what they meant by it. Claims nobody could check are recorded as such and never scored.